Crypto Analysis

This Morning's Overview

This morning Bitcoin is trading at 85,490.62 dollars, down 0.30% compared to the previous close of 85,750.58 dollars, a difference of around 259.96 dollars. Over the past day, price has swung within a range between the high of 86,605.38 dollars and the low of 85,133.71 dollars, a range width of approximately 1,471.67 dollars. This is considered a mild pullback, as price continues to hold above both the short-term and medium-term moving averages.

Driving Factors

The main factor weighing on overall financial market sentiment comes from the US side, particularly the latest FOMC meeting results indicating that most Fed officials are prepared for another rate hike within this year. This is compounded by the New York Fed survey showing 1-year inflation expectations jumping to 3.9% from 3.6%, the highest level since 2023. These factors have pushed Treasury yields sharply higher, with the 30-year bond reaching 5.70%, the highest level in several years, causing risk assets worldwide including crypto to face selling pressure. Market news also noted that Bitcoin previously faced selling pressure from liquidations worth over 400 million dollars in the recent round, reflecting still-high volatility in the derivatives market. In addition, the reopening of Chinese markets after the long holiday could also add liquidity and volatility to risk assets overall. Regarding BTC-specific factors, there is no direct economic news affecting it today, so the main drivers remain technical and overall market sentiment.

Technical View

The RSI14 reading stands at 43.9, placing it in a neutral zone leaning slightly weak, not yet clearly in oversold or overbought territory, suggesting short-term momentum is awaiting a new direction. Meanwhile, price continues to hold above SMA20 at 84,182.88 dollars by about 1,307.74 dollars, or roughly 1.55%, and above SMA50 at 80,281.07 dollars by as much as 5,209.55 dollars, or about 6.49%. Both lines remain arranged with SMA20 above SMA50, reflecting a medium-term uptrend structure that remains intact, even though the overall system signal still reads NEUTRAL.

Possible Scenarios Today

Upside scenario: If price can hold firmly above 85,750.58 dollars, the previous close, with buying pressure continuing to push a retest of the 86,605.38 dollars zone, this would signal that the pullback is ending and the market is ready to head toward new highs again, especially if overall risk sentiment eases as yields slow their climb.

Downside scenario: If price breaks below the support at 85,133.71 dollars down to test SMA20 at 84,182.88 dollars, this would be a warning sign that short-term upward momentum is weakening. A further break down to the SMA50 area at 80,281.07 dollars would be a point requiring a full reassessment of the trend structure, especially if Treasury yields continue rising and pressure risk assets broadly.

What to Watch

Today, BOE Gov Bailey is scheduled to speak at 08:15 US time, which, although directly GBP-related news, could also affect overall global financial market risk sentiment. Tomorrow, watch the CAD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures due at 08:30 US time, which could similarly affect overall market sentiment. For crypto-specific risks during this period, keep an eye on Treasury yields continuing to climb, as this remains a pressuring factor for risk assets overall, along with volatility from the derivatives market that could trigger another round of liquidations if key support levels break. Investors should closely monitor the 85,133-86,605 dollars price range to assess the next direction.